Daily Market Commentary


Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Trading Central! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you. Like what you see? Feel free to forward this to a friend!
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Daily Market Commentary
August 3, 2020
 
 
 
Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Trading Central! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you. Like what you see? Feel free to forward this to a friend!
 
 
 
SGX MSCI Singapore   Hang Seng (HKFE)   Dow Jones (CME)   Nikkei 225 (OSE)   EUR/USD   USD/JPY   AUD/USD   GBP/USD  
 
 
 
Indices
Market Commentary
Analyst View
 
 
  Indices  
 
 
Last Close %1D %YTD
 
Dow Jones
26,428.32
+0.44%
-7.39%
 
 
Nasdaq 100
10,905.88
+1.78%
+24.90%
 
 
S&P 500
3,271.26
+0.77%
+1.25%
 
 
Euro Stoxx 50
3,174.32
-1.06%
-15.20%
 
 
Dax
12,313.36
-0.54%
-7.10%
 
 
Cac 40
4,783.69
-1.43%
-20.00%
 
 
FTSE 100
5,897.76
-1.54%
-21.80%
 
 
SMI
10,005.90
-0.89%
-5.80%
 
 
Nikkei 225
21,710.00
-2.82%
-8.20%
 
 
Hang Seng
24,595.35
-0.47%
-12.80%
 
 
Shanghai-B
237.90
+0.13%
-7.40%
 
 
Shenzhen-B
929.29
+0.89%
-3.40%
 
 
     
  Market Commentary  
 
 
Singapore
 
 
 
Hong Kong
 
 
 
Hang Seng Bank (11), HSBC - HK (5), CLP Holdings (2): 1H results expected.

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122), Shenzhen O-film Tech (002456): 2Q results expected.
 
 
 
United States - Market Hours
 
 
 
Apple (AAPL +10.47% to $425.04), the consumer electronics company, gapped up to an all-time high and the top of the S&P after the Co reported third quarter EPS of 2.58 dollars, above the estimate, up from 2.18 dollars a year ago on revenue of 59.7 billion dollars, beating the forecast, up from 53.8 billion dollars last year. The Co also announced a 4-for-1 stock split and that the launch of the next iPhones will be delayed by a few weeks.

Facebook (FB +8.17% to $253.67), the largest online social network platform, gapped up to a record high after the Co posted second quarter EPS of 1.80 dollar, beating the forecast, down from 1.99 dollar a year ago on revenue of 18.7 billion dollars, better than expected, up from 16.9 billion dollars a year earlier. In other news, Bloomberg revealed that Facebook completed a series of deals that will now allow its users in the U.S. to view and share music videos on its platform, a strategic move to compete with Alphabet's (GOOGL -3.28% to $1487.95) YouTube platform.

Flowserve (FLS -6.91% to $27.87), a manufacturer and service provider of comprehensive flow control systems, fell after the Co announced second quarter adjusted EPS of 0.53 dollar, above the estimate, down from 0.54 dollar a year ago on adjusted sales of 925.0 million dollars, higher than anticipated, down from 990.1 million dollars a year earlier.

Newell Brands (NWL -7.45% to $16.4), a global American consumer goods company, plummeted after the Co unveiled second quarter EPS of 0.18 dollar, down from 0.45 dollar a year ago on sales of 2.1 billion dollars, in line with the year before.

Under Armour (UAA -8.12% to $10.52), the athletic apparel company, dropped to the bottom of the S&P after the Co disclosed second quarter adjusted LPS of 0.31 dollar, better than expected, down from an LPS of 0.04 dollar a year ago on net revenue of 707.6 million dollars, exceeding the consensus, down from 1.2 billion dollars in the previous year.

50D MA cross under: Dow Inc (DOW -1.61% to $41.06), Travelers Companies (TRV -1.3% to $114.42).

Relative strength stock/S&P500 50D MA cross under: Microsoft (MSFT +0.54% to $205.01), Verizon Communications (VZ +0.31% to $57.48), Walmart (WMT -0.55% to $129.4).
 
 
 
United States - After Hours
 
 
 
No major after hours news.
 
 
 
United States - Expect Today
 
 
 
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B), a holding company with a vast range of subsidiaries: second quarter EPS seen at 2.28 dollars on revenue of appx. 61.1 billion dollars (63.6 billion dollars).

AIG (AIG), a global insurance and financial services firm: second quarter EPS seen at 0.48 dollar (1.43 dollar a year ago), after mkt.
 
 
 
United States - Dividend
 
 
 
MetLife (MET): $0.46
 
 
 
United States - Foreign Exchange
 
 
 
The US Dollar was bullish against most of its major pairs on Friday with the exception of the CAD.

On the economic data front, Personal Income declined 1.1% on month in June (-0.6% expected), compared to a revised -4.4% in May. Personal Spending increased 5.6% on month in June (+5.2% expected), compared to a revised +8.5% in May. Market News International's Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index jumped to 51.9 on month in July (44.0 expected), from 36.6 in June, a level last reached in mid-2019. Finally, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index slipped to 72.5 on month in the July final reading (72.9 expected), from 73.2 in the July preliminary reading.

On Monday, Markit's U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for the July final reading is expected to remain at 51.3 on month, in line with the July preliminary reading. Finally, Construction Spending for June is expected to rise 1.0% on month, from -2.1% in May.

The Euro was mixed against all of its major pairs. In Europe, the Eurozone's GDP for the second-quarter was released at -12.1% vs a fall in annualized rate of -12.0%, and Consumer Prices for July was reported at -0.3% (vs -0.5% on month expected). In Germany, June Retail Sales were reported at -1.6% on month (vs -3.3% expected). In the U.K., the Nationwide House Price Index was released at +1.7% on month in July, vs -0.1% expected.

The Australian dollar was bearish against most of its major pairs with the exception of the NZD and JPY.
 
 
 
United States - Commodities
 
 
 
After the close of Wall Street, WTI Crude Future (SEP 20) was about flat to $40.43. The contract was above its 20D MA (@ $40.1) and above its 50D MA (@ $40.1).

Gold was up $16.3 to $1973. The precious metal was above its 20D MA (@ $1857) and above its 50D MA (@ $1785). The 14d RSI above 70 (83.18) indicates gold was overbought.

Copper Future (SEP 20) on Comex was down 4.8c to 286.6c/lb. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ 292.5c) and below its 50D MA (@ 292.5c).
 
 
 
Today's Economic Events
 
 
 
JN 02:30: Jul Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI final, exp.: 40.1
SK 02:30: Jul Markit Manufacturing PMI, exp.: 43.4
TA 02:30: Jul Markit Manufacturing PMI, exp.: 46.2
AU 03:00: Jul TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM, exp.: 0.6%
AU 03:30: Jul ANZ Job Advertisements MoM, exp.: 4.2%
CN 03:45: Jul Caixin Manufacturing PMI, exp.: 51.2
SI 15:00: Jul SIPMM Manufacturing PMI, exp.: 48
US 15:45: Jul Markit Manufacturing PMI final, exp.: 49.8
US 16:00: Jul ISM Manufacturing Prices, exp.: 51.3
US 16:00: Jul ISM Manufacturing New Orders, exp.: 56.4
US 16:00: Jun Construction Spending MoM, exp.: -2.1%
US 16:00: Jul ISM Manufacturing Employment, exp.: 42.1
US 16:00: Jul ISM Manufacturing PMI, exp.: 52.6
US 17:30: 3-Mth Bill auction, exp.: 0.11%
US 17:30: 6-Mth Bill auction, exp.: 0.13%
SK 01:00: Jul Inflation Rate MoM, exp.: 0.2%
SK 01:00: Jul Inflation Rate YoY, exp.: 0%
JN 01:30: Jul Tokyo CPI YoY, exp.: 0.3%
JN 01:30: Jul Tokyo Core CPI YoY, exp.: 0.2%
 
 
  Analyst View  
 
 
 
  Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.
 
 
     
 
SGX MSCI Singapore (Q0)‎ Intraday: under pressure.
 
Pivot:
287.90
 
Our preference:
short positions below 287.90 with targets at 284.60 & 282.40 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
above 287.90 look for further upside with 290.90 & 292.80 as targets.
 
Comment:
the RSI is mixed to bearish.
 
 
 
 
 
 
Hang Seng (HKFE)‎ (Q0)‎ Intraday: the downside prevails.
 
Pivot:
24540.00
 
Our preference:
short positions below 24540.00 with targets at 24270.00 & 24050.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
above 24540.00 look for further upside with 24750.00 & 24925.00 as targets.
 
Comment:
as long as the resistance at 24540.00 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 24270.00 remains high.
 
 
 
 
 
 
Dow Jones (CME)‎ (U0)‎ Intraday: further advance.
 
Pivot:
26120.00
 
Our preference:
long positions above 26120.00 with targets at 26340.00 & 26500.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
below 26120.00 look for further downside with 26010.00 & 25880.00 as targets.
 
Comment:
the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
 
 
 
 
 
 
Nikkei 225 (OSE)‎ (U0)‎ Intraday: key resistance at 22000.00.
 
Pivot:
22000.00
 
Our preference:
short positions below 22000.00 with targets at 21680.00 & 21540.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
above 22000.00 look for further upside with 22130.00 & 22300.00 as targets.
 
Comment:
the RSI is mixed with a bearish bias.
 
 
 
 
 
 
EUR/USD Intraday: aim @ 1.1760.
 
Pivot:
1.1820
 
Our preference:
short positions below 1.1820 with targets at 1.1760 & 1.1730 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
above 1.1820 look for further upside with 1.1850 & 1.1875 as targets.
 
Comment:
the immediate trend remains down and the momentum is strong.
 
 
 
 
 
 
USD/JPY Intraday: bullish bias above 105.45.
 
Pivot:
105.45
 
Our preference:
long positions above 105.45 with targets at 106.05 & 106.30 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
below 105.45 look for further downside with 105.15 & 104.85 as targets.
 
Comment:
the RSI is mixed to bullish.
 
 
 
 
 
 
AUD/USD Intraday: look for 0.7125.
 
Pivot:
0.7160
 
Our preference:
short positions below 0.7160 with targets at 0.7125 & 0.7105 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
above 0.7160 look for further upside with 0.7175 & 0.7190 as targets.
 
Comment:
the RSI is mixed to bearish.
 
 
 
 
 
 
GBP/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 1.3075.
 
Pivot:
1.3075
 
Our preference:
long positions above 1.3075 with targets at 1.3170 & 1.3220 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
below 1.3075 look for further downside with 1.3020 & 1.2975 as targets.
 
Comment:
a support base at 1.3075 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
 
 
 
 
 
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