Daily Market Commentary


Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Trading Central! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you. Like what you see? Feel free to forward this to a friend!
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Daily Market Commentary
September 1, 2020
 
 
 
Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Trading Central! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you. Like what you see? Feel free to forward this to a friend!
 
 
 
SGX MSCI Singapore   Hang Seng (HKFE)   Dow Jones (CME)   Nikkei 225 (OSE)   EUR/USD   USD/JPY   AUD/USD   GBP/USD  
 
 
 
Indices
Market Commentary
Analyst View
 
 
  Indices  
 
 
Last Close %1D %YTD
 
Dow Jones
28,430.05
-0.78%
-0.38%
 
 
Nasdaq 100
12,110.70
+0.96%
+38.70%
 
 
S&P 500
3,500.27
-0.22%
+8.34%
 
 
Euro Stoxx 50
3,272.51
-1.30%
-12.60%
 
 
Dax
12,945.38
-0.67%
-2.30%
 
 
Cac 40
4,947.22
-1.11%
-17.20%
 
 
FTSE 100
5,963.57
-0.61%
-20.90%
 
 
SMI
10,135.56
-0.28%
-4.50%
 
 
Nikkei 225
23,139.76
+1.12%
-2.20%
 
 
Hang Seng
25,177.05
-0.96%
-10.70%
 
 
Shanghai-B
253.158
+0.97%
-1.40%
 
 
Shenzhen-B
960.021
+0.40%
-0.20%
 
 
     
  Market Commentary  
 
 
Singapore
 
 
 
The Straits Times index fell 0.28% or 7.12pts to 2532.51 (day range: 2560.43 - 2523.34) on Monday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 2545) and below its 50d MA (@ 2589). 63% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 63% the previous session) and 40% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 40%).
 
 
 
Hong Kong
 
 
 
The HSI index fell 0.96% or 245.01pts to 25177.05 (day range: 25847.11 - 25177.05) on Monday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 25132) and above its 50d MA (@ 25124). 54% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 54% the previous session) and 50% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 50%).

In China, the CSI300 index declined 0.58% or 28.05pts to 4816.22 (day range: 4901.21 - 4816.21) on Monday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 4740) and above its 50d MA (@ 4619). 50% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 50% the previous session) and 69% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 69%).

China's official Manufacturing PMI slipped 51.0 in August (51.1 expected) from 51.2 in July, while Non-manufacturing PMI rose to 55.2 (54.1 expected) from 54.2, according to the government.

China Construction Bank (939), a top tier Chinese bank, posted 1H net income dropped 10.7% on year to 137.63 billion yuan while credit impairment losses increased 49.2% to 111.38 billion yuan. Meanwhile, operating income rose 4.5% to 359.92 billion yuan on net interest income of 266.49 billion yuan, up 6.4%.

ICBC (1398), a major Chinese bank, announced that 1H net income slid 11.4% on year to 148.79 billion yuan as impairment losses on assets increased 26.5% to 125.46 billion yuan. Meanwhile, operating income grew 2.1% to 402.35 billion yuan on net interest income of 306.55 billion yuan, up 2.4%.

Bank of China (3988), one of the largest Chinese bank, reported that 1H net income fell 11.5% on year to 100.92 billion yuan, where impairment losses on assets jumped 97.5% to 66.48 billion yuan. Operating income increased 3.7% to 286.98 billion yuan on net interest income of 196.90 billion yuan, up 8.4%.

Agricultural Bank of China (1288), a major Chinese bank, posted 1H net income slid 10.4% on year to 108.83 billion yuan as credit impairment losses increased 34.9% to 99.12 billion yuan. Operating income climbed 4.7% to 339.77 billion yuan on net interest income of 258.90 billion yuan, up 8.9%.

Sinopec (386), a Chinese oil and gas giant, announced that it swung to a 1H net loss of 22.88 billion yuan from a net profit of 31.34 billion yuan and operating income declined 31.0% on year to 1.03 trillion yuan.

China Merchants Bank (3968), a Chinese banking group, announced that 1H net income fell 1.6% on year to 49.79 billion yuan while net operating income rose 7.1% to 148.16 billion yuan on net interest income of 90.87 billion yuan, up 4.0%.

Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177), a biopharmaceutical company, reported that 1H underlying net income grew 5.2% on year to 1.76 billion yuan on revenue of 12.65 billion yuan, up 1.0%. The company declared an unchanged interim dividend of 0.02 Hong Kong dollar per share.

CNBM (3323), a building materials supplier, announced that 1H net income slid 6.4% on year to 5.39 billion yuan on revenue of 106.79 billion yuan, down 4.8%.

Yanzhou Coal Mining (1171), a coal miner, posted 1H net income dropped 21.7% on year to 4.55 billion yuan on revenue of 35.32 billion yuan, up 6.3%.

Great Wall Motor (2333), a vehicle manufacturer, announced that 1H net income declined 35.3% on year to 802 million yuan on operating revenue of 35.93 billion yuan, down 10.9%.
 
 
 
United States - Market Hours
 
 
 
Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN +6.76% to $114.22), a developer of drugs for rare and life threatening medical conditions, jumped after Bloomberg published that Novartis (NVS -0.62% to $86.06) reported positive results from a Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating their drug LNP023 in patients with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH), a rare blood disorder. Patients who received LNP023 as an add-on to Alexion's Soliris (eculizumab) showed significant reduction of PNH symptoms compared to using eculizumab alone.

Apple (AAPL +3.39% to $129.04), the consumer electronics company, surged to a record high after the Co's 4-for-1 stock split process was completed and took effect at market open.

Amazon.com (AMZN +1.45% to $3450.96), the world largest online retailer and web services provider, rose to an all-time high after CNN revealed that the Co received a critical certificate from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) that has brought the Co a step closer to launching its drone delivery services in the US.

Airline stocks such as Alaska Air (ALK -4.37% to $38.95), American Airlines (AAL -3.97% to $13.05), Delta Air Lines (DAL -3.56% to $30.85) and United Airlines (UAL -3.59% to $36), fell after The Wall Street Journal disclosed that United Airlines made the decision to permanently end flight-change fees for the majority of its domestic tickets.

Phillips 66 (PSX -5.37% to $58.47), an oil refinery and transportation company, tumbled after Phillips 66 Partners (PSXP +1.51% to $26.92) announced that its subsidiary Gray Oak Pipeline, will be launching an open season beginning at 9:00 a.m. Central Daylight Time (CDT) on September 1st, 2020. This means that Gray Oak Pipeline will be providing an opportunity for shippers to secure long-term crude oil transportation under binding transportation services agreements.

50D MA cross under: Boeing (BA -2.26% to $171.82).

Relative strength stock/S&P500 50D MA cross under: Home Depot (HD -0.44% to $285.04), Visa (V -1.72% to $211.99).
 
 
 
United States - After Hours
 
 
 
Zoom Video Communications (ZM), the leader in modern enterprise video communications, reported second quarter adjusted EPS of 0.92 dollar, significantly beating the estimate, up from 0.02 dollar last year on revenue of 663.5 million dollars, also exceeding the forecast, up from 145.8 million dollars a year earlier. The Co also raised its third quarter adjusted EPS and revenue forecast.
 
 
 
United States - Expect Today
 
 
 
No major earnings expected.
 
 
 
United States - Dividend
 
 
 
Nvidia (NVDA): $0.16, Schlumberger (SLB): $0.125
 
 
 
United States - Foreign Exchange
 
 
 
The US Dollar was bearish against most of its major pairs on Monday with the exception of the NZD and JPY. On the US economic data front, no major economic data was released.

On Tuesday, Markit's US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for the August final reading is expected to remain at 53.6 on month, in line with the August preliminary reading. Finally, Construction Spending for July is expected to increase 1.0% on month, from -0.7% in June.

The Euro was bullish against most of its major pairs with the exception of the CAD. In Europe, German CPI was down by 0.1% in August in first reading after a 0.5% decline a month earlier. They were anticipated to be flat.

The Australian dollar was bullish against most of its major pairs with the exception of the CAD and EUR.
 
 
 
United States - Commodities
 
 
 
After the close of Wall Street, WTI Crude Future (OCT 20) was about flat to $42.8. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ $43.07) and below its 50D MA (@ $43.07).

Gold was up $4.3 to $1969.1. The precious metal was above its 20D MA (@ $1969) and above its 50D MA (@ $1889).

Copper Future (DEC 20) on Comex was up 3.4c to 305.3c/lb. The contract was above its 20D MA (@ 304.2c) and above its 50D MA (@ 304.2c).
 
 
 
Today's Economic Events
 
 
 
SK : Aug Imports YoY, exp.: -11.9%
SK : Aug Exports YoY, exp.: -7%
SK : Aug Balance of Trade, exp.: $4.27B
JN 02:30: Aug Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI final, exp.: 45.2
SK 02:30: Aug Markit Manufacturing PMI, exp.: 46.9
TA 02:30: Aug Markit Manufacturing PMI, exp.: 50.6
AU 03:30: Jul Building Permits MoM, exp.: -4.9%
AU 03:30: Q2 Current Account, exp.: A$8.4B
CN 03:45: Aug Caixin Manufacturing PMI, exp.: 52.8
JN 05:45: 10-Year JGB auction, exp.: 0.02%
AU 06:30: RBA Interest Rate Decision, exp.: 0.25%
HK 10:30: Jul Retail Sales YoY, exp.: -24.8%
US 14:55: 08/29 Redbook MoM, exp.: 4.1%
US 14:55: 08/29 Redbook YoY, exp.: 0.6%
US 15:45: Aug Markit Manufacturing PMI final, exp.: 50.9
US 16:00: Aug ISM Manufacturing New Orders, exp.: 61.5
US 16:00: Aug ISM Manufacturing Prices, exp.: 53.2
US 16:00: Jul Construction Spending MoM, exp.: -0.7%
US 16:00: Aug ISM Manufacturing Employment, exp.: 44.3
US 16:00: Aug ISM Manufacturing PMI, exp.: 54.2
US 17:30: 119-Day Bill auction, exp.: 0.11%
US 17:30: 42-Day Bill auction, exp.: 0.09%
US 19:00: Fed Brainard speech
US 22:30: 08/28 API Crude Oil Stock chg, exp.: -4.5M
SK 01:00: Aug Inflation Rate MoM, exp.: 0%
SK 01:00: Aug Inflation Rate YoY, exp.: 0.3%
 
 
  Analyst View  
 
 
 
  Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.
 
 
     
 
SGX MSCI Singapore (U0)‎ Intraday: aim @ 287.20.
 
Pivot:
292.20
 
Our preference:
short positions below 292.20 with targets at 288.90 & 287.20 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
above 292.20 look for further upside with 294.90 & 296.60 as targets.
 
Comment:
as long as the resistance at 292.20 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 288.90 remains high.
 
 
 
 
 
 
Hang Seng (HKFE)‎ (U0)‎ Intraday: the downside prevails.
 
Pivot:
25250.00
 
Our preference:
short positions below 25250.00 with targets at 24730.00 & 24530.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
above 25250.00 look for further upside with 25420.00 & 25615.00 as targets.
 
Comment:
the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%
 
 
 
 
 
 
Dow Jones (CME)‎ (U0)‎ Intraday: rebound.
 
Pivot:
28330.00
 
Our preference:
long positions above 28330.00 with targets at 28590.00 & 28670.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
below 28330.00 look for further downside with 28270.00 & 28175.00 as targets.
 
Comment:
the RSI shows upside momentum.
 
 
 
 
 
 
Nikkei 225 (OSE)‎ (U0)‎ Intraday: under pressure.
 
Pivot:
23220.00
 
Our preference:
short positions below 23220.00 with targets at 23010.00 & 22870.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
above 23220.00 look for further upside with 23370.00 & 23500.00 as targets.
 
Comment:
the RSI is mixed with a bearish bias.
 
 
 
 
 
 
EUR/USD Intraday: towards 1.1995.
 
Pivot:
1.1915
 
Our preference:
long positions above 1.1915 with targets at 1.1965 & 1.1995 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
below 1.1915 look for further downside with 1.1895 & 1.1880 as targets.
 
Comment:
the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.
 
 
 
 
 
 
USD/JPY Intraday: the bias remains bullish.
 
Pivot:
105.70
 
Our preference:
long positions above 105.70 with targets at 106.15 & 106.50 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
below 105.70 look for further downside with 105.45 & 105.15 as targets.
 
Comment:
the RSI is mixed and calls for caution.
 
 
 
 
 
 
AUD/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 0.7360.
 
Pivot:
0.7360
 
Our preference:
long positions above 0.7360 with targets at 0.7405 & 0.7430 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
below 0.7360 look for further downside with 0.7340 & 0.7315 as targets.
 
Comment:
the RSI is mixed and calls for caution.
 
 
 
 
 
 
GBP/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 1.3340.
 
Pivot:
1.3340
 
Our preference:
long positions above 1.3340 with targets at 1.3415 & 1.3460 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario:
below 1.3340 look for further downside with 1.3300 & 1.3260 as targets.
 
Comment:
the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.
 
 
 
 
 
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