ForexAnalytix Weekly Report


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Weekly Report (January 25th - 29th 2021)

An eventful week came to a close, with equities firmly in focus once again. Most major indices fell, but that wasn't what had market participants glued to their screens. Instead, heavily shorted stocks like Gamestop, AMC Entertainment and Nokia were the talk of the town. The Robinhood brigade and Reddit users seemingly ganged up to drive these stocks a lot higher, and destroy short-selling funds in the process. One thing is for sure: there is growing discontent among regular investors/traders and the big institutions, and this should be worrying. 
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The US Dollar is still trading in a choppy fashion, but at least it seems that, for now, in 2021 it's managed to stop its continued drop. The Federal Reserve interest rate decision didn't spring any surprises, and it seems that substantial monetary easing will be with us for quite some time. Last week the DXY index crept 0.4% higher to close at 90.536.
 
The Euro remained relatively subdued in the middle of the general equity frenzy. The EURUSD traded in the 1.21s and the single currency more or less flatlined against the other majors.
 
The Pound still trades well overall, following the EU/UK agreement in late 2020. We've said before that although the path may be choppy, Sterling should continue to do well in the medium term. GBPUSD closed near the 1.37 mark and EURGBP closed down 0.4% at 0.8852.
Commodity currencies retained their strong correlation with risk assets and retreated last week. The NZD performed better than the rest, somehow managing to stay flat against the greenback, while the CAD drifted 0.3% lower. The AUD and NOK fared worse, dropping 1% against the dollar. The CHF and JPY also dropped 0.6% and 0.9% respectively, while the week's big loser was the MXN which crashed 3.2% lower.
 
Oil moved broadly sideways for a second week in a row, and generally seems to be consolidating its recent gains. Last week WTI rose 0.2% to close at $52.17.
 
Precious metals would have had a relatively quiet week if it wasn't for the WallStreetBets crowd! A mid-week post urging participants to buy SLV caused Silver to spike and break out higher. Was this the start of a move much higher, or an opportunity to sell? Silver has been undervalued for a while and it's more likely that this could be the real deal. Last week Gold was broadly flat at $1848 but Silver flew 5.8% higher to close just shy of $27.
The Week Ahead Video Preview:

Our "Week Ahead Preview" is delivered in video form including a review of important charts and price action. Follow the link below to watch Blake Morrow's next week's insight:
 
Equities were once more the focus of attention, but for once it wasn't the indices! All eyes were on a handful of stocks with huge short interest and their insane daily price moves, but overall the major indices struggled. Last week the S&P500 index and the DAX both dropped over 3% to close at 3710 and 13425 points respectively.
 
Bonds had a third consecutive week of hibernation, and with all interest in equities, bonds have been relegated to the background; last week the 10y UST and 10y Bund barely moved.
 
Finally, crypto-currencies have come alive once again with elevated volatility and increased volumes. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is up 3% at $33500 and Ethereum is around 8% higher at $1347.
The Week Ahead:

The week ahead should once again be dominated by equity markets. The single-name stock volatility is certainly exciting to watch, but we shouldn't lose focus of the major indices and the general direction. In many metrics, valuations have never been this high before, and a correction is probably long overdue.
 
Data-wise we have the RBA and BoE interest rate decisions, a flurry of PMI releases, and we close the week with the usual NFP volatility. Good luck and trade safe! 
Ticker Weekly Summary:
Major data releases last week included: 
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The Market Outlook for 2021

Major events next week include:
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